Lessons from the Gulf

Reports surfacing from the Gulf this week indicate that up to 75% of the oil spill is gone or is quickly degrading from bacterial action. The 13 August issue of Science magazine reports that NOAA maps no longer show any surface oil in the gulf. Perhaps more importantly, the reportedly massive subsurface oil plumes are not being found … at least where the scientists are looking.

This remarkable turn of events is being touted as evidence of Mother Nature’s magical resilience, able to absorb whatever catastrophic blows are dealt and keep coming back for more.  The disappearing oil plume is also the cautious triumph of a desperate gamble to spray chemical dispersants a mile below the ocean surface. This was a difficult, risky decision made by NOAA, EPA and others who faced lack of precedent, significant downside, angry shrimpers and a skeptical public.

Samantha Joye, biogeochemist of the University of Georgia, Athens, says “raising the flag and declaring victory is premature.” Indeed. The sea flows of oil are calculated, not measured. That means not directly observed. The margin of error in the calculations is + 10%, meaning that close to 40% of the oil could still be unaccounted for, residual oil buried in sediment, floating as tarballs or washing ashore. Wherever it is, don’t look for that oil to show up on CNN 360 any time soon.

Interagency estimate of DH oil remaining

The lessons that need to be learned from the Gulf is that environmental degradation does not lend itself to the 24 hour news cycle. The effects of this spill, and other disasters that have and haven’t occurred yet, are more accurately measured in years, not days or months. In this case, risks to spawning bluefin tuna populations will remain unknown for some time to come.  In most cases, effects of environmental impacts are less newsworthy – subtler, cumulative, where the tipping point is uncertain. Death by a thousand cuts is less dramatic but no less fatal.